But in Campaign ‘04 it’s unclear whether either boxer will still be standing by Nov. 2. As Bush was in the air, his aides previewed a new ad depicting Kerry as a tax-raising, terrorist-coddling, U.N.-admiring softie. It was an unprecedented move: the earliest name-calling by a president against his rival in a paid ad in memory. The attack prompted the Kerry campaign to respond with its first paid TV spot, which was unprecedented, too. Challengers normally begin with a warmly positive “bio” ad. Not Kerry. The key line in his commercial: “Doesn’t America deserve more from its president than misleading negative ads?”
Why so nasty so early? There are several reasons, ranging from the candidates’ own strategic imperatives to the nature of politics in 2004. Among the calculations:
Refocus the spotlight. To Kerry and his fellow Democrats, the GOP’s tack is obvious: Bush has nothing “positive” to talk about, and is diverting attention from his administration’s failures. “The economy is iffy at best, and Iraq is headed who knows where, what else can he do?” says Kerry’s polltaker, Mark Mellman. The Bush team, for its part, points to polls showing that Democratic primary voters had no special regard for Kerry, choosing him because he seemed like the most ferocious dog in the kennel. “He’s not exactly a charming character,” says a Democratic strategist who has worked with him. “Better to talk about the other guy.”
Calm down the base. Bush has been playing defense on everything–from an uninspiring State of the Union speech to his National Guard service to a new accusation that his administration covered up the true cost of his prescription-drug plan. The result: “a lot of anxiety” among Republicans, says Bush adviser Charlie Black. Bush is out and about with the aim of lifting GOP spirits. “Our people want to hear from me and see me out there,” Bush told King.
There is no ’early.’ Politicians now understand what broadcast networks learned: there is no “season” anymore. Voter-viewers watch when there is something compelling to see. The hoary notion was that voters don’t pay attention to a general-election race until after Labor Day or even the end of the World Series. It no longer applies. A senior Bush administration official says that, according to internal polls, interest is as high as it was in October 2000.
Define him first. “Most voters out there know what’s in the vessel labeled ‘George W. Bush’,” says Democratic polltaker Harrison Hickman. “The one called ‘Kerry’ is only about 20 percent full. Now it’s a race to see who gets to pour the rest in.” To both candidates, the lesson of history is that the “defining” process is largely one of attacking the other guy early. This generation’s Bushies remember the first one’s lackadaisical attitude toward Bill Clinton in early 1992. Bush Two has “learned from his father’s precedent,” says a senior administration source. For Kerryites, the folk memory of failure is Mike Dukakis, who is widely seen as having been unprepared for Bush One’s assault in 1988. Kerry has sold himself thus far as a fighter in Vietnam and politics: the anti-Dukakis.
Shake the money loose. Red meat is the best dish to serve at fund-raising banquets, and both campaigns need it on the menu. Bush-Cheney ‘04 has raised more than $150 million since last year, a colossal sum. But by the end of its current costly ad campaign, BC04 will have spent an equally astonishing (and, to some Republicans, troubling) $65 million to $70 million. Bush will need to keep raising money–lots of it. Same goes for Kerry, though the mechanics are somewhat different. Dr. Howard Dean established the tone and the technique on the Democratic side; his Net-based rhetorical war on Bush netted $40 million. Kerry is aping the approach; he’s raised nearly $10 million on the Net since Super Tuesday. Kerry also is out to inspire independent “527” groups–a flotilla of Bush haters that hope to raise $150 million.
The age of Google. Attack politics is nothing new. The Federalists and Jeffersonians engaged in wig-raising stuff 200 years ago. But technology keeps amping up the pace and accuracy of weaponry. In 1992 the Clinton War Room understood–in a way the Bush One crowd never did–that cable TV had accelerated the game. Now it’s moving even faster on the Internet where Democrats, for now, seem more attuned to the clock speed. The latest victim: Anthony Raimondo, a Nebraska businessman who was to be Bush’s long-promised “manufacturing czar.” When Kerry’s team got a preannouncement tip last week that Raimondo was about to be named, they Googled up the fact that his company had cut jobs at home while opening a plant in China. They were out with a press release before the announcement–which never came. “We are pretty nimble,” says Stephanie Cutter, a Kerry spokeswoman. “But the other side will catch up.”
Habits of the handlers. Karl Rove is known for Big Think, but his roots are in direct mail, which places a premium on incendiary, even apocalyptic, language. He’s not afraid to get into an argument; in fact, Bush’s basic 2004 campaign theme is about “clear choices.” The professionals around Kerry are similarly combative. They are epitomized by media strategist Bob Shrum, who was a champion collegiate debater and coach. “Some consultants see a campaign as a narrative, a story,” says a rival Democratic strategist. “Not Bob. He views it as a never-ending parliamentary debate.” Shrum has never been with a winner in presidential politics. But he has thrived as an adviser to national campaigns in parliamentary democracies (Tony Blair of Britain is a client, as was Ehud Barak of Israel).
Skull versus bones. Bush called Kerry to congratulate him after he locked up the Democratic nomination. Kerry, for his part, said he “knew” George Bush at Yale. In both cases, the body language was more put-down than embrace. The two men share a similar past–New England prep schools and Yale–and a need to win whatever contest they enter. Indeed, NEWSWEEK learned, Bush told his aides in early February to ramp up their effort to “define” Kerry. The president knew who his foe was likely to be, and couldn’t wait to get into the ring with him.
