Last week was anything but easy. Federal investigators quizzed him about questionable fund-raising phone calls he may have made in 1996. Paula Jones’s sexual harassment case got air time as she and Gennifer Flowers gave depositions. In Congress Democrats undercut his bid for broad power to negotiate new trade deals–a power enjoyed by every president since Gerald Ford. The GOP majority, meanwhile, obstructed the nomination of Bill Lann Lee, an Asian-American lawyer, to be Clinton’s civil-rights chief. And even as the president was cajoling the United Nations into approving a tough new resolution against Saddam, Congress was defiantly voting to withhold some $1 billion in back payments to the world body.
The defeat on trade was the most costly. Expanding global commerce is a cherished Clinton goal. Yet he underestimated the effort and the argument he would need to win so-called ““fast track’’ authority. Two key constituencies in his own party–the unions and environmentalists–opposed it. Republicans couldn’t supply enough support to compensate for his failure to convince Democrats that free trade equals economic salvation. He started late and cynically offered pork–bridges were a favorite–rather than make a strong case.
In the end, he didn’t risk a vote–a humiliation reminiscent of the 1994 failure of his health plan. White House allies dismissed the resulting lame-duck talk as Beltway blather. The public ““never knew if it was “fast track’ or Amtrak,’’ scoffed Clinton polltaker Mark Penn. George Stephanopoulos differed. ““The president can set a direction,’’ he said. ““But legislatively, it’s over.''
It was payback time for traditional Democrats, bitter at having been ignored while Clinton cut deals with the GOP on spending, taxes and welfare. Now a renascent liberal party wing–bankrolled by union money, based in the House, led by Rep. Dick Gephardt–is eager to reassert itself. In theory, that could be bad news for Al Gore, a globalist techie who wants to win on his own in 2000. Luckily for Gore, the House is not America, nor, for now, is it the grass roots of the party. In the NEWSWEEK Poll, Gore is preferred by 40 percent of Democrats, more than twice the percentage of the second-place finisher, Jesse Jackson. Gephardt gets just 7 percent.
As for Clinton, he’s caught in a no man’s land of his own making. His goal now is to re-establish diplomatic relations with his party. His State of the Union speech in January will be rich with traditional ““social security’’ themes: education, child care, health care. He may choose Rep. Vic Fazio to be his new chief of staff–a Californian who favors free trade but who is otherwise a winsome schmoozer. Clinton may make Bill Lann Lee a ““recess appointment,’’ which would defy the GOP majority and please minority groups. And there is still the president’s personal popularity. In the NEWSWEEK Poll it’s never been higher: a job-approval rating of 59 percent.
It’s doubtful whether any of this will save the Democrats from losing seats next year: the president’s party invariably takes a hit in the sixth year of a presidency. That’s why Saddam may turn out to be something of a political gift–if Clinton can’t stand tall at home, perhaps he can in the gulf.
