And why not? The convention, Menino boasted, would pour $150 million into the local economy–something Bostonians of any political persuasion could celebrate.
But now Boston’s experience offers a case study in how post-9/11 security concerns have altered the economics of conventions. It may not quite be a cautionary tale, as visibility for the city could produce unquantifiable psychic benefits. And every city is different: Boston’s not New York, where the Republicans will gather in August; commuters and business people in the Big Apple may be fretting there over the inconveniences that heightened security may create. But the worry has yet to rise to Bostonian levels. The contrast seems to be related to geography and size.
The worries rose last month when a new study from the Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University reported that Boston won’t make the $150 million the mayor promised. Yes, there will be fully occupied hotels, jammed restaurants and lots of tax revenue in the city coffers. But thanks largely to security that will disrupt Boston’s businesses, researchers conclude, the convention will actually drain $12.8 million from the economy. Estimating the economic impact of events like the Olympics or a convention is notoriously inexact. Economists have to guess how much delegates will spend for Red Sox tickets or clam chowder–and how much the city benefits from prime-time TV exposure. The study’s author, David Tuerck, is skeptical. “Boston is such a well-known commodity,” he says.
Some of Boston’s problems are idiosyncratic. Instead of sending delegates to the city’s convention center, planners chose the Fleet Center, which is nearer to hotels and offers better perches for TV cameras. Trouble is, the Fleet Center sits right in Boston’s compact downtown, adjacent to the city’s main north-south highway, and above a major train station. The Secret Service has announced it will close the highway and train line during parts of the convention to reduce the threat of a bombing. By contrast, New York’s Penn Station will remain open during the GOP convention, though bomb-sniffing dogs will inspect every train.
That leaves Boston businesses wondering how they’ll function. At the accounting firm Feeley & Driscoll, the 100 employees are being required to use a week’s vacation. Even some businessmen who normally prosper from tourist traffic–like Austin O’Connor, who owns two bars near the convention site–say any positive impact may be offset by all the events being displaced. Banned in Boston this summer: the Olympic gymnastics trial and as many as 10 concerts.
Boston’s mayor insists the numbers will break his way. “We’ll make money,” Menino tells NEWSWEEK. “This will have real economic benefits for Boston, not just for five days but down the road.” If he’s wrong, and the new security calculus makes city planners recalibrate the value of political conventions, they could become an endangered species.
