Sounded tough, sounded immediate. But don’t be misled. Bombs almost certainly are going to fall at some point, but not as soon as Bush’s campaign-trail warnings made it seem.
I keep telling anyone who will listen that Bush is a methodical fellow, more cautious and patient than his West Texas barroom swagger would indicate. He is under no political pressure at home or abroad to launch a strike. Quite the opposite, if anything. The Pentagon isn’t ready to roll and neither are our military allies, both active and passive, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Last summer, the world mistook Bush’s rootin’ tootin’ “axis of evil” rhetoric for a sign that he was ready to go to war–that very minute–with Saddam. The president surprised everyone by going to Congress, the United Nations and the voters–and winning approval from all three force fields of politics for his measured approach. He’ll do the same, in a more limited way, this time.
Bush, for now, is still pursuing what I would call The Joshua Strategy. He is marching around Baghdad (Jericho) blaring his rhetorical trumpet, hoping to unnerve the bad guys, hoping that the mighty walls somehow collapse on their own.
LIST LIKELY TO BE LAUGHABLE
The next phase begins on Saturday–Pearl Harbor Day, as it happens. Saddam is expected to turn over to U.N. inspectors what is supposed to be a complete, detailed list of any and all weapons of mass destruction and the components thereof. Look for the list to include something along the lines of a few bottles of Clorox bleach, three economy-size cans of Raid and a beaker of formaldehyde from the biology lab at the Baghdad High School of Science.
I’m guessing, but I think the list is unlikely to convince independent observers that Saddam is being either complete or truthful. But does that mean we go to war the next day? No.
What will Bush do and say next? For one, he’ll angrily dismiss the list as a sham–he’s been doing that in advance. And he’ll remind the world that the U.N Security Council resolution threatens “serious consequences” for all manner of Iraqi noncooperation. Kofi Annan has been defending his inspectors work thus far, but he won’t be able to tell them to call it quits after he deciphers what Saddam has to say.
Then Bush will demand that the U.N. send in more inspectors (who are already on the way) and ask that they perform even more intrusive inspections than the one that turned up a jar of marmalade the other day in one of Saddam’s palaces. The president will then say that American forces will join in the inspections on their own if the U.N is unable to be more intrusive on their own.
Bush is an expert poker player, and I think that the U.N demand for information–and Saddam’s subsequent lies–will give the president a chance to play his next card. That will be more proof, from anti-Saddam exiles, U.S. satellite reconnaisance photos and CIA intelligence, that will tend to show that the Iraqis are holding back.
LINING UP SAUDI, TURKISH SUPPORT
Meanwhile, the United States will continue laying the military and diplomatic groundwork for an eventual attack. I can’t prove it, but I think it was no accident that the media (led by my colleagues at NEWSWEEK) last week reported on the Saudis’ casual efforts to monitor the flow of cash from their charities. The resulting political firestorm in Washington put the Saudi Embassy on the defensive. Within days, the Saudis, eager to prove their cooperativeness, were letting it be known that the Americans could use their Saudi-based command center as the nerve center of any eventual assault on Saddam in Iraq.
The Turks will require special care. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz was in Ankara recently, trying to convince Turkey to allow for the use of its bases as a massive staging area for an allied invasion of Iraqi territory. The new Islamic-oriented government was cautiously supportive, but it wants to wait for more proof of Iraqi lies and more U.N. support before saying “yes.” Administration sources tell me they think they can provide it, sooner rather than later.
The main political point is that Bush is under no pressure to release the laser-guided ordnance over Baghdad. He has the almost total support of his own party and the forbearance of just about everyone else on the American political scene. Democratic Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, now announced as a presidential candidate, has accused Bush of ginning up the Iraqi adventure for purely political reasons. But he stops short of arguing that the United States shouldn’t try to take out Saddam.
The biggest risk for the president is that Al Qaeda will strike again at America. If it does, voters will ask whether the focus on Iraq–an administration obsession since last summer–was a wise expenditure of political, diplomatic and military capital. In the meantime, Bush can play a waiting game.
If I had to guess, I would say the bombs will fall in February or March. Then the real time of testing will begin–for the president, for the country, and for the world.
