It features a politically shrewd Republican president–a hard-liner on foreign affairs–facing, for the most part, a pack of Democratic senators. This was Nixon in 1972 against a field that included McGovern, Muskie, Bayh and “Scoop” Jackson. Same for Reagan in 1984 against Glenn, Hart and (former senator) Mondale. It isn’t the kind of history Democrats want to repeat: they were trounced on both occasions. But if they want to avoid the same fate, they need to be creative, and lucky.
It’s a bad sign for a party when most of the energy in a presidential race comes from the Senate (or the House of Representatives). The grassroots, not the Beltway, is where the action is in American politics, especially a presidential race. A national campaign is a coup of sorts against Washington. It’s difficult to run convincingly against the capital if you are in it and a part of it. That’s why, since the days of Watergate, governors or former governors have won every presidential election save one (George H.W. Bush in 1988).
So my first piece of unsolicited advice for John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, Tom Daschle and anyone else on Capitol Hill who wants to run (including Joe Biden) is to resist the siren song of cheap attention here and get out into the country. The temptation will be to use the platform and the procedure of the Senate and the House to get attention. But there are two pitfalls in that strategy. For one, you can’t meet voters face to face in the well of the Senate. And you’ll be seen primarily in the role of blocking President Bush’s proposals. You have to be for things to avoid the (unfair but still effective) charge that you are merely “playing politics.”
Democrats can’t let Bush be the outsider. This isn’t a problem for Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, former senator Gary Hart (who’s thinking of running again), the Rev. Al Sharpton or any of the black “favorite sons” who may want to run in the primaries if Democratic strategist Donna Brazile can convince them to do so. But it’s a big problem for the front runners–the members of Congress.
Based on the history, here’s another thing the Dems have to do–or rather, not do: avoid being McGovernized. In wartime, or what passes for wartime, Democrats can’t win running as the “peace” candidate. Why? Well, they already have enough trouble with white male voters; running to the left of Bush on the war on terrorism is a sure way to make the situation worse. But here’s the tactical reason: it’s all too easy for the Republican war hawk to turn just dovish enough, just soon enough, to blunt the attack before election day. Nixon ordered Henry Kissinger to concoct a secret Vietnam “peace plan” in the nick of time in 1972–enough to give some hope to suburban swing voters. Reagan, for all his “Evil Empire” bravado and devotion to Star Wars, knew–and let people know he knew–that arms-reduction deals were a good thing.
Another recommendation: Think Generation X. I know the conventional thinking is, why bother? Political machines tend to go after those they know will actually vote, which means older folks who care about Medicare, prescription drugs, etc. It’s also true that wooing college kids (Gen Y) is generally a waste of time; they don’t vote and the youngest of them may be too pro-Bush to do the Dems much good. The Democrats’ best target now is Gen X, that is, voters aged 22-38. Many of these postboomer adults came of age in the Clinton years. They tend to remember Reagan as a fond childhood memory, but they also liked very much Bill Clinton’s go-go economy of the ’90s. They remain up for grabs–and their participation rate is still slacker-low.
Turn them on, and win. How? That’s for the candidates to figure out. But the message may have something to do with saving the planet, as well as the country. But whatever the candidates say, here’s one last piece of advice: have some laughs. Al Gore can be a truly funny guy, as he demonstrated on “Saturday Night Live.” If the Democrats can’t find anyone else to make them smile–and laugh at themselves–they are in worse trouble than they realize.
