Spaulding’s fate could have implications for his old friend McCain. Since the election, the Arizona senator has pushed for more, not fewer, troops in the Iraq conflict, claiming “without additional ground forces we will not win this war.” It’s a striking stance for a man considered to be the front runner for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, considering the American public’s growing impatience for the end of the war. Even in conservative New Hampshire, 38 percent of voters now support bringing troops “home ASAP,” according to the most recent Granite State poll. South Carolina, where a tough defeat ended McCain’s 2000 campaign, will play an even more influential role in 2008 thanks to early placement in the primary calendar. There, too, Republican voters are growing unhappy with the war. “People are wondering how long this is going to go on,” says Buddy Witherspoon, a Republican National Committeeman from Columbia. “I don’t think a proposal like that is going to get McCain any votes down here.”
Privately, some McCain supporters have begun to worry that the senator’s hard line on the war may turn off the moderate, independent-minded voters who’ve long formed the bedrock of his primary support. “We lost independents,” says one campaign adviser, who asked for anonymity discussing the politics of national security. “McCain will have to get them back to win, or at least convince them to trust him.”
Still, some members of McCain’s inner circle are convinced the position could actually work to his advantage–reminding independents of the maverick they fell in love with in 2000. In a 2008 campaign, aides say, the senator would accentuate his differences with the Bush administration over management of the Iraq occupation, stressing his early criticism of ousted Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and the persistent call for more troops. The hope, the campaign adviser says, is that even antiwar voters will gradually come to accept the position as “a long-term stand based on principle.”
It’s a risky strategy, particularly in a primary field where candidates like Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney offer Iraq-free résumés and a fresh set of eyes for the conflict. Last week, Tom Vilsack, the Iowa governor, kicked off his bid for the Demo-cratic presidential nomination by claiming McCain’s option would “make a big mistake even bigger.” Still, aides say the senator will continue to call for more troops. “It’s not in his nature to let potential political considerations influence a decision like that,” says his chief of staff, Mark Salter. “This is what he believes, period.”
Copyright 2006 Newsweek: not for distribution outside of Newsweek Inc.