An even higher number–85 percent–say they would support military action if the United States was joined by its major allies and also had the full support of the U.N. Security Council. And half of those polled said they would also support a U.S. attack if only one or two major allies signed on, even if the United Nations did not give its approval–an increase of 10 percent from the poll taken two weeks ago. Americans remain reluctant to back a unilateral attack, however, with 59 percent saying they would not support a non-U.N.-sanctioned, U.S.-only attack, while 37 percent say they would.
Nonetheless, most Americans think President George W. Bush is on the right track. Sixty percent say they approve of the way he is handling policies to deal with the threat posed by Iraq and Saddam Hussein. And after slipping slightly over the past month, Bush’s approval ratings reversed course and rose to 61 percent.
Support for an attack remains high even if U.N. inspectors don’t find evidence that Iraq has chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons as long as the Bush administration says its intelligence reports indicate Iraq does have the banned weapons (as Powell indicated this week). Sixty percent would support military action under this circumstance–a jump of eight percent from the last poll two weeks ago–while 34 percent would oppose it (six percent don’t know).
Americans are nearly evenly split on whether to take military action now or to allow more time to try nonviolent means of achieving policy goals in Iraq. Forty-six percent say force is the only way to effectively deal with Iraq and that the United States should move forward quickly with military action, while 50 percent feel the Washington should take more time to achieve its goals in Iraq without using military force. But their patience appears to be waning. In a major shift from the last poll in late January, about one-third of those polled now think U.N. inspectors should get less than a month to continue looking for banned weapons before any kind of military action is taken, a 13-percent increase. Thirty-one percent still say the inspectors should get as much time as they need (down from 41 percent two weeks ago), but 19 percent say inspectors should get about a month. Twelve percent say several months, while just three percent think inspectors should get a full year (2 percent don’t know).
Seventy-seven percent of respondents say they saw, heard, or read something about Powell’s speech at the United Nations in which he tried to show that Iraq is still producing or storing banned weapons and trying to hide the evidence from the U.N. inspectors. Sixty-nine percent of those polled say Powell’s presentation was very (46 percent) or somewhat (23 percent) convincing in making the case the Iraq has been hiding banned weapons from U.N. inspectors. Sixty percent say Powell was very (35 percent) or somewhat (25 percent) convincing in making the case that Iraq is actively supporting Al Qaeda terrorists. And 62 percent were very convinced (41 percent) or somewhat convinced (21 percent) after Powell’s presentation that Saddam poses an immediate danger to the world.
The use of commandos or special forces to capture Saddam or work with local anti-Saddam forces remains the most popular military option, with 77 percent approval. Sixty-eight percent would support air strikes against Iraq without the use of ground troops. But 58 percent would now support sending in large numbers of U.S. ground troops too. That’s a 9 percent jump from the poll last month and the highest level of support for using ground troops since the question was first asked in late 2001.
Estimates of war casualties have remained at about the same level over the past few months, with three quarters of those polled saying it’s very (38 percent) or somewhat (37 percent) likely that many U.S. pilots or other military personnel will be killed or taken prisoner. The vast majority also believes that it’s very (68 percent) or somewhat (23 percent) likely that hundreds of Iraqi civilians will be killed or injured. And nearly eight out of 10 polled say it’s very (54 percent) or somewhat (25 percent) likely that the toll on Iraqis will be even higher, with thousands or civilians killed or injured.
Despite the continued reluctance by France and Germany to use military means to disarm Saddam, fewer Americans feel that if the United States took such action against Iraq it would create serious divisions between the U.S. and its allies. Just over half (53 percent) say a military attack would create serious divisions–down from 60 percent in late January; 38 percent say it would not.
However, 71 percent of those polled say a military attack on Iraq would cause “serious problems” for the United States throughout the Arab world, and about the same number fear Iraq would retaliate by using biological or chemical weapons against Israel (73 percent) or against the United States (76 percent). Just as many respondents (75 percent) think Saddam would also eventually use weapons of mass destruction against a neighboring country if the United States did not take military action against Iraq.
Similarly, 86 percent of those polled think that if the U.S. did take military action against Iraq it would inspire terrorist attacks against U.S. citizens–a 10-percent jump from the poll taken just after the one-year anniversary of the September 11 attacks. But almost as many (83 percent) think Saddam would be instrumental in helping Al Qaeda terrorists carry out future attacks against the United States if we did not take military action against him.
