Powell’s key asset is the timing of his mission, coming at the moment that the world seemed to be staring into the abyss of far wider violence than has been seen so far. What he hopes to do, according to a highly placed U.S. official, is harness the concerns of the moderate Arab states and the Islamic world, as well as America’s European allies, to put pressure on Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat into taking certain specific actions.
Arafat must not only condemn the suicide bombings that have killed hundreds of Israeli civilians, but also make every effort to rein in the volunteers from the Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades that is responsible for many of the recent suicide bombings, U.S. officials say. Al Aqsa is associated with Arafat’s Fatah movement. The aim then is to bring about a rapid start of Israel-Palestine peace negotiations.
But the first test of Bush’s policy shift will be how soon Israel halts its operations. In particular, the timing of its withdrawal from Ramallah, where Israeli forces are effectively holding Arafat under house arrest, will be crucial. Bush, who specifically demanded a pullback from Ramallah, did not stipulate a deadline. But a top official said here the U.S. “hopes” the operation will end “as soon as possible.”
“We will see what the reaction is,” the official told reporters.
If Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon persists with the operation, he risks a widening of the public demonstrations seen earlier this week in Egypt, Lebanon and other Arab countries. This would undercut U.S. influence with the Arab states Powell plans to visit next week–and could destroy Powell’s mission before it begins.
It would not be the first time Sharon has continued operations after the U.S. launched a peace initiative. Last month, when Bush announced he was resuming a high-profile U.S. mediating effort, a full week elapsed before the arrival in Israel of retired Marine general Anthony Zinni. During that period, the Israeli Army moved into significant areas of the West Bank. U.S. aides said Israel had insisted on the delay in starting the mission. Earlier this week, Sharon snubbed Zinni and effectively suspended U.S. mediation by denying him permission to call on Arafat.
Although details remain to be worked out, Powell is organizing his trip around the goal of forcing Arafat to call off the suicide bombing wave. Before heading to Israel and Palestine, the secretary of State will call on Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah and Jordanian King Abdullah. Powell will ask them to assist him in organizing meetings with Palestinian leaders other than Arafat while on the West Bank. The travel plan alone conveys a clear warning that he is ready to snub the Palestinian leader if necessary. In return, Powell will bring with him a plan to compress the timetable between a ceasefire and the beginning of talks intended to reach a political resolution.
There is little love lost between Arab leaders and Arafat. The Saudis, for example, view him as disloyal and unpredictable. But Arafat’s popularity has risen among Palestinians and in the Arab world in general since Sharon began his latest siege of Ramallah. The Palestinian leader’s interviews with Arab television networks saying he was ready and willing to become a martyr have added to his standing. Setting up meetings with an alternative leadership may therefore be more than moderate Arab leaders will be able to deliver.
These leaders have their hands full now. U.S. officials said the decision to shift policy reflected concern that demonstrations in Arab capitals would go out of control. The situation throughout the Arab world was “on the edge of explosion,” a State Department official told NEWSWEEK Thursday. What seized U.S. attention most was a week of increasingly violent anti-Israel demonstrations in Egypt, where thousands of university students demanded the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador. Syria’s decision to move troops to the southern border of Lebanon, ostensibly to control the Hizbullah guerrilla movement was another ominous movement. And there were news reports that Arab states like Yemen, whose cooperation is indispensable in the U.S. war against terrorism, would withdraw from an active role.
But most worrisome were signs that Sharon was about to step up what he has already called his “war against terrorism” and enter a new and wider phase. Until Bush made his surprise speech, Israeli sources had predicted the operation would continue another two to three weeks. The question now is when Israel will call it off.
